Completing the Building Envelope
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The recent market of non-ferrous metal stocks and futures synchronization higher, stock enhancement linkage correlation, especially in the metal aluminum eye-catching performance. This wave of "fly dance steel splash" market mainly benefited from supply side contraction leads to higher prices, corporate profits rise, so the performance of uncertainty and growth stage of the strong. Non-ferrous metals stocks changed early losses, in the stock market to re pay attention to the value of investment and performance stage more favored.
Aluminum prices in the weak fundamentals and strong policy side of the game, high shock intensity. Although the current supply reduction is not obvious, the downstream demand is poor, trading decline, the stock is still in the process of recovery, making the spot aluminum price pressure. But the supply side reform is expected to make late production of large probability will be gradually implemented, the stock is expected to reduce the pressure to increase, supporting the latter aluminum prices. The cost of coal prices is expected to end high volatility, the price of alumina or because of shrinkage and bearing capacity of electrolytic aluminum anode carbon will increase and stabilize, because the second half of the project put into operation, the overall cost is expected to end stability shock. SMM statistics, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity weighted, including tax full cost 12797 yuan / ton, weighted tax cash cost 11811 yuan / ton, more than 98% operating capacity cash earnings. The cost of end stability under the condition of electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to make aluminum prices increased earnings, driven by earnings rebound is expected to usher in a win-win option.