Completing the Building Envelope
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The impact of Sino US trade frictions on the non-ferrous metal industry
In 2017, China's exports to the United States accounted for 17% of the total export value of aluminum. In 2017, aluminum exports accounted for 12% of the domestic apparent consumption, about 4 million 200 thousand tons. According to this estimate, aluminum exports to the United States account for less than 2% of domestic apparent consumption and about 710 thousand tons. At the same time, due to factors such as low ratio and disguised export and re export, the actual export of aluminum materials is limited. In 2017, China imported 618 thousand tons of scrap aluminum from the United States. If China levied import tariff at 25% tax rate, the amount of aluminum import of scrap aluminum will be reduced by 280 thousand tons in 2018, and the total aluminum supply in China is about 0.6%. According to the above estimates, the balance of domestic aluminum supply and demand will be less than 1% after offset.
From the point of view of supply and demand, in 2017, the domestic aluminum supply gap in the United States was 4 million 680 thousand tons, and the main import source of its aluminum products was Canada, which has now applied for tariff exemption. At present, some of the domestic aluminum smelting capacity in the United States is ready to restart production to reduce the impact of aluminum import tariffs, but in the short term it is not enough to make up for it, which will raise the rising water in the United States. Even if the US increased its aluminum smelting capacity, the problem of raw materials and electricity faced by the United States is still to be solved, and there is still a shortage of supply in the non - United States, and the price of aluminum abroad is still in a high oscillation pattern.