Completing the Building Envelope
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Shanghai aluminum prices at the end of the 2015 fell below 10000 yuan/ton. After bottoming inversion, took less than two years before fill in the four years of decline.However, since the National Day, the price is falling in just two months down about 17%,from 17300 yuan/ton to the current 14300 yuan/ton,so that basic giving up the last 10 months of gains.
The most important thing is, the surface of supply and demand determine prices running direction.Especially after the National Day, five-years and ten-years Treasury bonds futures fall, that suggesting higher capital costs and tighter on the financing side.Combined with the consumption is not flourishing, the Shanghai aluminum hovered near 16500 yuan/ton for two months, then don't back to the underground line.
To sum up, the Shanghai aluminum prices had regained the essential condition of recovery should be consumption, inventory decline, while in the spot price discount rate is not significantly narrowed, inventory continues to accumulate, tight finances, at the end of aluminum futures is likely weaker oscillation.